LEADER of the UK Liberal Democrats Tim Farron was in Wales this week for the Welsh party’s conference, in an attempt to rally the troops before the elections in May.
With the party languishing on around 5% support according to the most recent YouGov poll, and facing challenges from four parties, Mr Farron concentrated on Welsh Labour’s perceived poor record in government, and the need for a viable alternative.
He suggested that those looking for a ‘protest vote’ should choose the Lib Dems rather than UKIP. However, considering that the Liberal Democrat policies on, for example, membership of the European Union and immigration are somewhat different to those of UKIP, this could prove to be a somewhat forlorn hope.
Referring to persistent rumours that UKIP will be fielding former Conservative MPs Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton – something the party has yet to confirm – Mr Farron said: “I find it hard to credit, really, if I may say this as an English Liberal – why would people in Wales vote for English nationalists? That is essentially what they are and their interests are anything but the interests of Wales.”
A major problem for the Lib Dems could prove to be the number of alternative ‘protest votes’ available. Apart from UKIP, the Green Party is gathering in strength, and will be attempting to secure their first list member. An increase in the Green vote is likely to be primarily at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
Mr Farron was unwilling to say that he was ‘100% certain’ that any Lib Dems would be elected to the Assembly. However, if the YouGov poll is accurate, their vote stands to be more-than halved. With Kirsty Williams as their only constituency AM, this could have serious repercussions for the party’s list AMs – William Powell, Peter Black, Elunedd Parrott and Aled Roberts.
The collapse of the Lib Dem vote in the General Election could be put down largely to a highly unpopular Westminster coalition with the Conservatives, and it will be interesting to see whether the party’s record in Wales, where they have supported a minority Labour government, will suffer less as a result.
Mr Farron criticised Welsh Labour’s perceived ‘right to rule’ claiming that ‘Labour people’ that he met in Wales were ‘kind of insulted and offended at the notion anyone else should try and even contest them, never mind maybe beat them.’
It is worth mentioning that the only time that Labour has looked like possibly being ousted from power in Wales, in 2007, it would have required an ideological hotchpotch of the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, and the Lib Dems uniting in a ‘rainbow coalition. As The Herald has pointed out before, the leader of Plaid Cymru has ruled out any coalition with the Conservatives, while Andrew RT Davies appears to have ruled out any coalition with anyone, or had it ruled out for him.
The leader of the Westminster Labour Party also came in for some criticism, with Jeremy Corbyn described as ‘a nice bloke, but not a serious alternative to the Tories.’ Since taking over from Nick Clegg, support for the Lib Dems has dipped from 9-10% to around 6% – a trend which appears to have been reflected in Wales.
Mr Farron also claimed that Labour were ‘without doubt the most useless opposition in the history of British politics.
‘The Tories are getting away with cutting universal credit for the hardest working, poorest-paid people… because there is no one to hold them to account. What an outrage.
‘Labour have left the field of play. Liberal Democrats now fill that space.’ Other targets included the Etonian ‘sense of entitlement’ enjoyed by prominent Westminster Conservatives: “David Cameron and his Government have no idea how hard it is for people who don’t enjoy the sorts of income that they do,” he claimed. This would appear to be an attempt to try and take on Labour in Wales, as well as a significant re-invention following the exit of privately-educated banker’s son and Cambridge graduate Nick Clegg. Whether this will have any chance of success or not is open to question, but the Lib Dems may initially find it easier to gain votes from Labour than the Tories or Plaid.
Mr Farron also pledged his party’s support for the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. ‘The tidal lagoon was an absolute given when the Liberal Democrats were in power. Now it’s massively at risk given that we aren’t,’ he claimed.
Support for the project in Wales has never been doubted. However, as Mr Farron pointed out, after the 2015 General Election, a certain cooling-off has been noted, especially from David Cameron, and Secretary of State for Wales Stephen Crabb. It is unlikely, given the current political standing of the LibDems in Westminster – eight MPs, down from 57 – that they would be able to provide any serious support.
National 20mph limit comes into force in Wales next year
WALES will be the first UK nation to impose a 20mph default speed limit following a vote held in the Senedd yesterday (July 12). The Welsh Government voted to limit residential roads and busy pedestrian streets to 20mph.
According to the Welsh Government, this will lessen the likelihood and severity of accidents involving vulnerable road users. It will also encourage more people to cycle and walk.
39 members of the Senedd voted in favour, while 15 members voted against.
The new national default speed limit will come into effect from September 2023. The Welsh Government say the changes affect residential roads and busy pedestrian streets.
According to the Welsh Government, the modifications have an impact on major pedestrian routes and residential roadways. The Welsh Government is still deciding which highways will have 20mph speed restrictions and which ones should stay at 30mph.
The 22 councils in Wales will collaborate with Go Safe to determine implementation timelines, according to the Welsh Government, but enforcement will continue throughout the transition period.
Climate change minister, Julie James, stated: “The future of our towns and cities depends on our ability to move around sustainably and on solutions that have a positive impact on public health environment and communities.
“That is why we will use the principle that walking, cycling and active travel must remain the best options for short urban journeys and a 20mph default speed limit will help achieve this. The introduction of a national 20mph limit would be an important and far reaching policy. If passed Wales would be the first country in the UK to introduce the change. We’re asking you all to be part of this change and make our communities understand the wider benefits of 20mph.
“This change is a generational one and when the time to embed, it will need to be accompanied by an important communication and marketing campaign and behaviour change initiatives. Achieving behavioural change is challenging but Wales has previously shown that we can do it successfully with policies such as organ donation, the banning of smoking in public places, and limiting the use of plastic bags. It does, however, require a collaborative effort between agencies, local authorities and by communities. We need to bring speeds down.”
She continued, saying there is evidence that 20 mph speed limits encourage more people to bike or walk, and she hoped this would lead to people naturally choosing those modes of transportation.
According to Ms. James, 80 people die on Welsh roads on average each year, and current data shows that 30mph is the speed at which 53 percent of accidents occur.
The immediate cost is about £33 million, but according to the Welsh Government, increased road safety brought on by slower average speeds could generate a positive financial return of about £25 million over the course of 30 years due to the money saved on fewer emergency services and hospital visits.
Additionally, the policy might result in significant wider economic gains from increased road safety (£1.4 billion), environmental and health gains from increased active travel (£5 million), and additional unquantified benefits from more vibrant and connected local economies.
Large number of NHS staff in Wales currently off work as Covid cases rise
HEALTH MINISTER Eluned Morgan has said Wales is in the “midst of a new wave” Covid infections” and that around 1 in 20 people had the virus last week.
According to ONS data, it’s estimated that 149,700 people tested positive for COVID-19 for the seven days to 30 June.
Ms Morgan said a large number of NHS staff in Wales are currently off work because they have Covid-19.
Updating Senedd Members on the current situation in Wales, the health minister said: “Over the last couple of weeks, we have seen a steady rise in the number of coronavirus infections in Wales.”
“We are in the midst of a new wave of infections, caused by the BA.4 and BA.5 subtypes of the omicron variant.”
“These are fast-moving, highly infectious forms of the virus, which are causing a surge in infections across the UK and in many other countries around the world.” She said.
Public Health Wales reports the current dominant variant in Wales is the BA.5 variant of omicron.
The latest results of the ONS’ Coronavirus Infection Survey estimate 4.93% of the population in Wales had Covid-19 in the week ending 30 June – equivalent to approximately one person in 20.
This has increased from an estimated 1.33% of the population (one in 75) from the week ending 2 June.
Across the UK, the estimated prevalence of coronavirus ranges from 3.95% in England to 5.94% in Scotland for the week ending 30 June.
Ms Morgan said: “As we have seen in previous waves, the increase in cases in the community, has led to an increase in the number of people being admitted to and treated in hospital for Covid-19.”
“The latest available information shows there are now more than 960 Covid-19-related patients in Welsh hospitals and there has also been an increase in number of people with Covid-19 being treated in critical care.”
She said: “The NHS has been working incredibly hard to provide planned care for people across Wales and to reduce waiting times, which had built up over the course of the pandemic. This task becomes more difficult when pandemic pressures increase.”
“Some hospitals have taken the difficult decision to restrict visiting to prevent coronavirus from spreading among patients and staff; others are asking all visitors to wear face coverings.”
“We are not making face coverings mandatory in health and care settings , but I would encourage everyone to wear one if they are visiting a healthcare setting and I would also ask people to consider wearing a face covering in crowded indoor public places, while cases of coronavirus are currently high.”
“We have extended the availability of free lateral flow tests for people who have symptoms of coronavirus until the end of July.” Ms Morgan said.
She added: “There are a number of other simple steps everyone can take to keep themselves and Wales safe.”
- Get vaccinated
- Maintain good hand hygiene
- Stay at home and limit your contact with others if you are ill
- Wear a face covering in indoor crowded or enclosed places
- Meet others outdoors wherever possible
- When indoors, increase ventilation and let fresh air in.
Following Boris Johnson’s resignation, who could replace him as Prime Minister?
MOST prime ministers would have resigned over any one of the scandals to engulf Boris Johnson’s government. Johnson, never one for tradition or rules, rode out nearly every crisis – but the Chris Pincher affair was the final straw.
Led by Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor Rishi Sunak, over 50 members of Johnson’s government resigned in a day and a half. Johnson has now resigned as party leader, vowing to remain PM until a new leader is chosen.
Johnson was not a typical leader, and his successor will have a difficult job.
They will need to strengthen the Conservative party before the next general election (which could come sooner rather than later).
They will need to distance themselves from the more problematic aspects of Johnson’s legacy, while steadying the ship and appealing to the electorate.
Here are the likely runners and riders for this seemingly impossible task:
While not perhaps as well known as some of the candidates, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is considered a serious contender. He has been pivotal in the UK’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and was clear in the run-up to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan that action was needed to evacuate UK citizens and others in danger. He did not resign from Johnson’s cabinet, which might count against him, but he certainly looks like a strong candidate. Early polling suggests Wallace is the candidate to beat, but the campaign will test his early popularity.
Minister of State for Trade Policy Penny Mordaunt is not necessarily a household name, but she is very respected within the Conservative party. Mordaunt was a short-lived but well-respected defence minister and recently Royal Navy reservist. She previously served as secretary of state for international development (before the department was merged with the Foreign Office). Like Wallace, Mordaunt stuck by Johnson over the last few days, but her popularity within the party might allow her to overcome that issue, particularly if she can play up her pro-Brexit credentials.
The former chancellor was considered the leader in waiting in the early stages of the pandemic. His early successes with the furlough scheme elevated his status and profile, but his star faded fairly quickly. Questions over his wife’s tax status and wealth generally made Sunak seem out of touch with voters. He was also, along with Johnson, fined by police over lockdown parties in Downing Street. While he remains a strong candidate, he might have wished that his opportunity to stand for leader had come sooner.
Javid has the distinction of having resigned from a Johnson cabinet twice. His first resignation, from his role as chancellor just before the pandemic, was driven by his desire to appoint his own staff. He was invited back into cabinet after Matt Hancock’s resignation. While considered by many within the party as a very capable MP, with a working-class background that would count in his favour, some worry Javid showed a lack of judgment in rejoining the Johnson cabinet.
Zahawi came to public prominence when he spearheaded the vaccine rollout. His time as education secretary has been viewed positively, but his move to the Treasury less than two days before telling Johnson to resign have made some question his motives. Perception that he allowed personal ambition to override his moral compass is likely to hurt Zahawi. He will need to answer for this when asked by the party and country.
Currently overseas on official business, the foreign secretary will undoubtedly be thankful not to have been caught up in the chaos of this week. But is she too absent? While considered by many a “safe pair of hands” she is not a dynamic candidate for leader, and it is doubtful whether she can become an electoral asset to the party. If the Conservatives want a safe choice instead of another “exciting” leader to follow Johnson, Truss may have a shot.
The deputy prime minister is another potential leader in waiting. He has occupied a number of cabinet roles including secretary of state for Brexit, foreign secretary and now justice minister. While he certainly has a high-ranking position, he has had a number of missteps. As Brexit minister, he finished off the negotiations his predecessor David Davis began, then resigned because he couldn’t accept the deal he helped to finalise. As foreign secretary, he was criticised for his lack of speed during the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. That, coupled with his earlier comments calling British workers the “worst idlers in the world” before he joined the cabinet, make him a long shot for Downing Street.
The rest of the pack
On the backbenches, there are expected to be at least three potential candidates – former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, prominent Brexiteer Steve Baker, and well-respected backbench MP Tom Tugendhat. For any backbencher wanting to catapult themselves into Downing Street, the ride is likely to be bumpy. A track record of success is usually needed. This is harder for a backbencher, either because they have never been in cabinet, or because they have left cabinet (usually after being asked to). These individuals have a long road ahead of them.
There will be others who may want to scope out their prospects with the party. Cabinet secretaries Priti Patel or even Jacob Rees-Mogg might test the water, but they are likely to find it cold.
The battle ahead will inevitably have its twists and turns, and it is almost impossible to predict the outcome. Many within the Conservative party, and perhaps the country, will be hoping for less exciting times than they have recently lived through.
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